Allyson Bezerra (União Brasil) advanced from the October 4 first round as the narrow leader with roughly 36.7% of valid votes, edging Cadu de Lula (PT) at 36.3% and Álvaro Dias (PL) at 26.8%, sending the race to an October 25 runoff. This outcome, following months of shifting polls that alternately showed Allyson, Cadu, or a tighter three-way contest, has concentrated trader expectations on Allyson for the governorship. Her strong base in Mossoró and recent electoral momentum contrast with Cadu’s more modest first-round showing, while minor candidates remain marginal. The runoff timeline and any late coalition shifts or turnout patterns in key municipalities remain the primary variables still influencing implied probabilities ahead of resolution.