Recent statewide polling in Mato Grosso do Sul shows Flavio Bolsonaro maintaining double-digit leads over Lula in both first-round and runoff scenarios, with valid-vote margins reaching 51-33 in late September surveys. The state’s conservative-leaning electorate, concentrated in agricultural regions, has consistently favored right-wing candidates aligned with the Liberal Party platform in prior cycles. Multiple institutes, including Quaest, IPEMS, and Novo Ibrape, recorded Flavio at 42-48 percent against Lula’s 27-33 percent heading into the October 4 first round, with runoff simulations widening the gap further. These patterns reflect entrenched voter preferences that traders view as durable barriers to any late reversal before the October 25 runoff.