Lula secured 61.3% of valid votes in Paraíba during the October 4 first round, advancing to the October 25 runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro, who received 33%. Multiple pre-election surveys from Quaest, Atlas, and Anova showed the incumbent holding 52-58% statewide support, reflecting consistent backing in the Northeast and 62% government approval ratings. Local alliances, including re-elected Governor Lucas Ribeiro and newly elected Senator João Azevêdo, have reinforced mobilization efforts ahead of the runoff. Trader consensus at 98.5% for Lula aligns with this margin and historical patterns of strong PT performance in the state. Shifts could still arise from unusually low turnout or late mobilization by opposition networks, though current evidence points to limited scope for reversal.