Lula holds a commanding lead in Alagoas for first place in the October 25 second round, reflecting consistent pre-election polling margins of 10–20 points over Flávio Bolsonaro and the president's 54.7% share of valid votes in the October 4 first round statewide. Traders price this outcome at 97.3% because Alagoas remains part of the Northeast region where Lula and the PT maintain structural advantages in voter coalitions, despite Flávio's stronger local showing tied to his running mate from the state and better performance in the capital Maceió. Rejection levels for the PL candidate also exceed those for Lula in recent surveys. Shifts could still occur through unusually high abstention among Lula supporters, targeted late mobilization in evangelical or urban segments, or unforeseen campaign developments before the runoff closes.