Lula holds a 62% implied probability of finishing first among overseas voters in the October 25 runoff, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro at 39%, reflecting first-round patterns where the incumbent secured victories in 64 countries versus 36 for his opponent despite a narrow overall margin abroad. The U.S. bloc delivered Flávio roughly 61% support, consistent with prior evangelical and business-community preferences, while Lula dominated Europe, including Portugal and major hubs such as Lisbon. With the diaspora electorate now exceeding 900,000 and turnout around 37% in the opening round, traders appear to weigh Lula’s geographic breadth and historical strength in larger European communities as the decisive edge in a two-candidate contest. Minor candidates who failed to advance register near-even odds, underscoring the binary nature of the remaining matchup.