Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding 98% implied probability of finishing first in Mato Grosso during the October 25 second round, reflecting his 65% first-round share in the state against Lula’s 29%. Mato Grosso’s Center-West agricultural electorate has consistently favored the Liberal Party candidate in pre-election surveys, aligning with broader right-wing gains across the South, Southeast, and Center-West regions. The Bolsonaro family’s congressional successes and the national rightward shift further reinforce local momentum. While a dramatic reversal remains possible through unexpected turnout changes or late developments before the runoff, the scale of the first-round margin has produced the current trader consensus reflected in market pricing.