**Flávio Bolsonaro holds a commanding lead in Santa Catarina voter intention surveys for the October 25 runoff, reflecting the state’s consistent right-leaning electoral profile and strong local backing for the PL candidate.** Multiple recent polls, including Quaest and Real Time Big Data conducted in September 2026, placed him 25–30 points ahead of incumbent President Lula in both first-round and head-to-head scenarios, with margins widening from earlier surveys. First-round results reinforced this pattern, showing Flávio outperforming expectations statewide while consolidating support from eliminated conservative contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema. Trader pricing aligns with these trends and the limited remaining campaign window. Late shifts could still arise from unusually low turnout, last-minute alliance changes, or regional economic developments, though Santa Catarina’s structural preference has proven durable in prior cycles.