Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) advanced from the October 4 first round with 49.65% of valid votes against incumbent Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) at 34.06%, setting up an October 25 runoff. Pre-election surveys had shown Ferraço ahead or competitive, yet Pazolini’s stronger-than-expected performance, backed by right-leaning coalitions including PL support, shifted momentum and left traders uncertain about the final margin. With limited post-first-round polling available and only three weeks until voting, the high share priced on “Other” reflects the potential for a Ferraço comeback through incumbency resources, opposition consolidation, or turnout shifts, alongside the possibility of Pazolini expanding his lead. The spread across Pazolini’s margin buckets underscores this tight, data-scarce contest.