Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against any Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027, driven by the court's unprecedented zero base rate—no justice has ever been removed this way in republican history—and stringent procedural barriers requiring Procurador-Geral da República initiation plus two-thirds Senate approval, as reinforced by Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 ruling limiting requests to the PGR. Despite repeated opposition filings targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes amid tensions over January 8 coup convictions and recent sentence law suspensions, Senate leaders have shelved petitions without advancement. With 2026 elections looming in October, traders see slim odds of shifting Senate dynamics to meet the supermajority threshold before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$68,402 Vol.
$68,402 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$68,402 Vol.
$68,402 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against any Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027, driven by the court's unprecedented zero base rate—no justice has ever been removed this way in republican history—and stringent procedural barriers requiring Procurador-Geral da República initiation plus two-thirds Senate approval, as reinforced by Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 ruling limiting requests to the PGR. Despite repeated opposition filings targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes amid tensions over January 8 coup convictions and recent sentence law suspensions, Senate leaders have shelved petitions without advancement. With 2026 elections looming in October, traders see slim odds of shifting Senate dynamics to meet the supermajority threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volume
$68,402End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against any Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027, driven by the court's unprecedented zero base rate—no justice has ever been removed this way in republican history—and stringent procedural barriers requiring Procurador-Geral da República initiation plus two-thirds Senate approval, as reinforced by Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 ruling limiting requests to the PGR. Despite repeated opposition filings targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes amid tensions over January 8 coup convictions and recent sentence law suspensions, Senate leaders have shelved petitions without advancement. With 2026 elections looming in October, traders see slim odds of shifting Senate dynamics to meet the supermajority threshold before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$68,402End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 93.5% implied probability against any Brazil STF justice facing successful impeachment before 2027, driven by the court's unprecedented zero base rate—no justice has ever been removed this way in republican history—and stringent procedural barriers requiring Procurador-Geral da República initiation plus two-thirds Senate approval, as reinforced by Justice Gilmar Mendes' December 2025 ruling limiting requests to the PGR. Despite repeated opposition filings targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes amid tensions over January 8 coup convictions and recent sentence law suspensions, Senate leaders have shelved petitions without advancement. With 2026 elections looming in October, traders see slim odds of shifting Senate dynamics to meet the supermajority threshold before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions