Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 34.5% ("Yes"), with "No" leading at 65.5%, driven by the absence of any retirement announcements, resignations, or deaths among the nine sitting justices through mid-May. Earlier April speculation around aging conservative Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito—fueled by President Trump's comments on potential nominees ahead of midterms—cooled after sources reported Alito hiring clerks for the next term and neither planning to step down soon, despite his minor health episode earlier that month. No liberal justices face similar retirement pressure, and historical patterns show justices typically time exits strategically around confirmation windows, leaving the bench stable absent unforeseen events like health crises or rulings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 34.5% ("Yes"), with "No" leading at 65.5%, driven by the absence of any retirement announcements, resignations, or deaths among the nine sitting justices through mid-May. Earlier April speculation around aging conservative Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito—fueled by President Trump's comments on potential nominees ahead of midterms—cooled after sources reported Alito hiring clerks for the next term and neither planning to step down soon, despite his minor health episode earlier that month. No liberal justices face similar retirement pressure, and historical patterns show justices typically time exits strategically around confirmation windows, leaving the bench stable absent unforeseen events like health crises or rulings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Volume
$4,521End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 34.5% ("Yes"), with "No" leading at 65.5%, driven by the absence of any retirement announcements, resignations, or deaths among the nine sitting justices through mid-May. Earlier April speculation around aging conservative Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito—fueled by President Trump's comments on potential nominees ahead of midterms—cooled after sources reported Alito hiring clerks for the next term and neither planning to step down soon, despite his minor health episode earlier that month. No liberal justices face similar retirement pressure, and historical patterns show justices typically time exits strategically around confirmation windows, leaving the bench stable absent unforeseen events like health crises or rulings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,521End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 at 34.5% ("Yes"), with "No" leading at 65.5%, driven by the absence of any retirement announcements, resignations, or deaths among the nine sitting justices through mid-May. Earlier April speculation around aging conservative Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito—fueled by President Trump's comments on potential nominees ahead of midterms—cooled after sources reported Alito hiring clerks for the next term and neither planning to step down soon, despite his minor health episode earlier that month. No liberal justices face similar retirement pressure, and historical patterns show justices typically time exits strategically around confirmation windows, leaving the bench stable absent unforeseen events like health crises or rulings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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