Justice Alito’s August 2026 statements have anchored trader expectations, as the 76-year-old justice told the Wall Street Journal he is “here for another term” after an erroneous June NPR report briefly fueled retirement speculation. Clarence Thomas, the court’s oldest member at 78, has likewise shown no public intent to step down, and neither justice has cited health or other developments that would trigger a vacancy before year-end. With the new term opening in October 2026 and running into mid-2027, the absence of any announced retirements or confirmed departures among the nine sitting justices has produced the current 90% implied probability against a vacancy occurring in 2026.