Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro faces an ongoing federal trial in the Southern District of New York on a superseding indictment charging narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons offenses, following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and not guilty plea. Recent procedural developments, including a March denial of defense motions to dismiss and an April easing of U.S. sanctions permitting Venezuelan government funding for his legal team, have advanced pretrial preparations without signaling prosecutorial dominance. Traders' 88.5% implied probability for "No" reflects uncertainty over conviction on all counts, given challenges to the arrest's legality, head-of-state immunity arguments, and the narcoterrorism statute's limited full-trial success rate historically. A verdict awaits jury proceedings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$102,578 Vol.
$102,578 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
$102,578 Vol.
$102,578 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro faces an ongoing federal trial in the Southern District of New York on a superseding indictment charging narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons offenses, following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and not guilty plea. Recent procedural developments, including a March denial of defense motions to dismiss and an April easing of U.S. sanctions permitting Venezuelan government funding for his legal team, have advanced pretrial preparations without signaling prosecutorial dominance. Traders' 88.5% implied probability for "No" reflects uncertainty over conviction on all counts, given challenges to the arrest's legality, head-of-state immunity arguments, and the narcoterrorism statute's limited full-trial success rate historically. A verdict awaits jury proceedings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Volume
$102,578End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro faces an ongoing federal trial in the Southern District of New York on a superseding indictment charging narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons offenses, following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and not guilty plea. Recent procedural developments, including a March denial of defense motions to dismiss and an April easing of U.S. sanctions permitting Venezuelan government funding for his legal team, have advanced pretrial preparations without signaling prosecutorial dominance. Traders' 88.5% implied probability for "No" reflects uncertainty over conviction on all counts, given challenges to the arrest's legality, head-of-state immunity arguments, and the narcoterrorism statute's limited full-trial success rate historically. A verdict awaits jury proceedings.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$102,578End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ousted Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro faces an ongoing federal trial in the Southern District of New York on a superseding indictment charging narco-terrorism conspiracy, cocaine importation conspiracy, and weapons offenses, following his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces and not guilty plea. Recent procedural developments, including a March denial of defense motions to dismiss and an April easing of U.S. sanctions permitting Venezuelan government funding for his legal team, have advanced pretrial preparations without signaling prosecutorial dominance. Traders' 88.5% implied probability for "No" reflects uncertainty over conviction on all counts, given challenges to the arrest's legality, head-of-state immunity arguments, and the narcoterrorism statute's limited full-trial success rate historically. A verdict awaits jury proceedings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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