Traders assign a 77.5% probability to "No" on Maduro facing conviction on all counts primarily because the U.S. narco-terrorism and cocaine importation case remains in its early pretrial phase. A federal judge set a June 2027 trial date after Maduro and his wife pleaded not guilty to the four felony counts following their January 2026 capture. Defense counsel filed a September 2026 motion to dismiss on sovereign immunity grounds, with oral arguments scheduled for November 2026, creating substantial procedural hurdles before any jury considers evidence. Comparable historical prosecutions of foreign leaders have encountered lengthy delays, jurisdictional challenges, and partial outcomes, while the current timeline leaves ample room for appeals, evidentiary disputes, or plea resolutions that would prevent conviction on every charge.