Recent revocation of General License X in July 2026, following tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, has anchored low implied probabilities for near-term reissuance of Iran oil sanctions relief. The original 60-day waiver, issued June 22 under a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, temporarily authorized crude and petrochemical sales through August 21, including dollar-denominated payments, potentially unlocking $8–9 billion from roughly 67 million barrels of stranded inventory and boosting exports that had briefly reached multi-month highs. Subsequent maximum-pressure measures, including sanctions on smuggling networks and digital asset facilitators, have reinforced trader consensus around sustained restrictions. Oil market dynamics reflect this, with Brent and WTI prices showing limited sustained downside from the interim relief before policy reversal. Key upcoming catalysts include any renewed IAEA access commitments or Hormuz transit guarantees that could shift Treasury guidance, though current conditions point to limited near-term reversal risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$361,196 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
7%
October 31
32%
$361,196 Vol.
September 30
$22,170 Vol.
7%
October 31
$8,756 Vol.
32%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.Recent revocation of General License X in July 2026, following tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, has anchored low implied probabilities for near-term reissuance of Iran oil sanctions relief. The original 60-day waiver, issued June 22 under a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, temporarily authorized crude and petrochemical sales through August 21, including dollar-denominated payments, potentially unlocking $8–9 billion from roughly 67 million barrels of stranded inventory and boosting exports that had briefly reached multi-month highs. Subsequent maximum-pressure measures, including sanctions on smuggling networks and digital asset facilitators, have reinforced trader consensus around sustained restrictions. Oil market dynamics reflect this, with Brent and WTI prices showing limited sustained downside from the interim relief before policy reversal. Key upcoming catalysts include any renewed IAEA access commitments or Hormuz transit guarantees that could shift Treasury guidance, though current conditions point to limited near-term reversal risk.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$361,196End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.Recent revocation of General License X in July 2026, following tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, has anchored low implied probabilities for near-term reissuance of Iran oil sanctions relief. The original 60-day waiver, issued June 22 under a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, temporarily authorized crude and petrochemical sales through August 21, including dollar-denominated payments, potentially unlocking $8–9 billion from roughly 67 million barrels of stranded inventory and boosting exports that had briefly reached multi-month highs. Subsequent maximum-pressure measures, including sanctions on smuggling networks and digital asset facilitators, have reinforced trader consensus around sustained restrictions. Oil market dynamics reflect this, with Brent and WTI prices showing limited sustained downside from the interim relief before policy reversal. Key upcoming catalysts include any renewed IAEA access commitments or Hormuz transit guarantees that could shift Treasury guidance, though current conditions point to limited near-term reversal risk.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$361,196End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent revocation of General License X in July 2026, following tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, has anchored low implied probabilities for near-term reissuance of Iran oil sanctions relief. The original 60-day waiver, issued June 22 under a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, temporarily authorized crude and petrochemical sales through August 21, including dollar-denominated payments, potentially unlocking $8–9 billion from roughly 67 million barrels of stranded inventory and boosting exports that had briefly reached multi-month highs. Subsequent maximum-pressure measures, including sanctions on smuggling networks and digital asset facilitators, have reinforced trader consensus around sustained restrictions. Oil market dynamics reflect this, with Brent and WTI prices showing limited sustained downside from the interim relief before policy reversal. Key upcoming catalysts include any renewed IAEA access commitments or Hormuz transit guarantees that could shift Treasury guidance, though current conditions point to limited near-term reversal risk.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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