**US sanctions relief for Iranian oil exports remains on hold following the July 7, 2026 revocation of General License X, which had briefly authorized production, sale, and dollar-denominated transactions through August 21 as part of a short-lived U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.** That temporary waiver, issued in late June amid ceasefire talks, aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and advance nuclear inspections in exchange for economic concessions but was withdrawn after reported tanker attacks and compliance concerns. Traders now focus on whether renewed OFAC action will emerge before key deadlines, weighing Iran's oil revenue potential—estimated in the billions from unlocked floating inventory—against broader energy market effects on Brent and WTI benchmarks. Ongoing diplomatic uncertainty, enforcement priorities, and any fresh geopolitical developments continue to shape market-implied odds for near-term reissuance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$361,166 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
9%
October 31
32%
$361,166 Vol.
September 30
$22,140 Vol.
9%
October 31
$8,756 Vol.
32%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**US sanctions relief for Iranian oil exports remains on hold following the July 7, 2026 revocation of General License X, which had briefly authorized production, sale, and dollar-denominated transactions through August 21 as part of a short-lived U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.** That temporary waiver, issued in late June amid ceasefire talks, aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and advance nuclear inspections in exchange for economic concessions but was withdrawn after reported tanker attacks and compliance concerns. Traders now focus on whether renewed OFAC action will emerge before key deadlines, weighing Iran's oil revenue potential—estimated in the billions from unlocked floating inventory—against broader energy market effects on Brent and WTI benchmarks. Ongoing diplomatic uncertainty, enforcement priorities, and any fresh geopolitical developments continue to shape market-implied odds for near-term reissuance.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volume
$361,166End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.**US sanctions relief for Iranian oil exports remains on hold following the July 7, 2026 revocation of General License X, which had briefly authorized production, sale, and dollar-denominated transactions through August 21 as part of a short-lived U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.** That temporary waiver, issued in late June amid ceasefire talks, aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and advance nuclear inspections in exchange for economic concessions but was withdrawn after reported tanker attacks and compliance concerns. Traders now focus on whether renewed OFAC action will emerge before key deadlines, weighing Iran's oil revenue potential—estimated in the billions from unlocked floating inventory—against broader energy market effects on Brent and WTI benchmarks. Ongoing diplomatic uncertainty, enforcement priorities, and any fresh geopolitical developments continue to shape market-implied odds for near-term reissuance.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volume
$361,166End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US sanctions relief for Iranian oil exports remains on hold following the July 7, 2026 revocation of General License X, which had briefly authorized production, sale, and dollar-denominated transactions through August 21 as part of a short-lived U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding.** That temporary waiver, issued in late June amid ceasefire talks, aimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and advance nuclear inspections in exchange for economic concessions but was withdrawn after reported tanker attacks and compliance concerns. Traders now focus on whether renewed OFAC action will emerge before key deadlines, weighing Iran's oil revenue potential—estimated in the billions from unlocked floating inventory—against broader energy market effects on Brent and WTI benchmarks. Ongoing diplomatic uncertainty, enforcement priorities, and any fresh geopolitical developments continue to shape market-implied odds for near-term reissuance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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