**Ongoing US enforcement of the naval blockade on Iranian ports and shipping, combined with renewed sanctions pressure in August 2026, has kept the measure in place despite a brief June pause.** The blockade, imposed amid the broader US-Iran conflict that began earlier in the year, restricts Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and was only temporarily eased under a June memorandum before reimposition. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have publicly stated the Navy can sustain it indefinitely while pursuing what they describe as unprecedented economic measures against Tehran and its partners. **China’s continued purchases of Iranian oil and diplomatic resistance to US calls for cooperation have further reduced prospects for a quick resolution before Xi Jinping’s planned US visit around September 24.** Beijing has rejected unilateral sanctions, emphasized dialogue over pressure, and shown no signs of altering its stance to facilitate lifting the blockade. Recent US sanctions targeting Iran-linked entities, including some with Chinese ties, have heightened friction without producing a breakthrough. **These developments anchor trader consensus at 89% for “No,” reflecting the absence of verified diplomatic or military steps toward de-escalation in the final weeks before the summit.** Resolution hinges on concrete actions such as formal US-Iran agreements or verified cessation of enforcement, neither of which appears imminent based on official statements and shipping data through late August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated11% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
11% chance
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Dec 31, 2026
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
**Ongoing US enforcement of the naval blockade on Iranian ports and shipping, combined with renewed sanctions pressure in August 2026, has kept the measure in place despite a brief June pause.** The blockade, imposed amid the broader US-Iran conflict that began earlier in the year, restricts Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and was only temporarily eased under a June memorandum before reimposition. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have publicly stated the Navy can sustain it indefinitely while pursuing what they describe as unprecedented economic measures against Tehran and its partners.
**China’s continued purchases of Iranian oil and diplomatic resistance to US calls for cooperation have further reduced prospects for a quick resolution before Xi Jinping’s planned US visit around September 24.** Beijing has rejected unilateral sanctions, emphasized dialogue over pressure, and shown no signs of altering its stance to facilitate lifting the blockade. Recent US sanctions targeting Iran-linked entities, including some with Chinese ties, have heightened friction without producing a breakthrough.
**These developments anchor trader consensus at 89% for “No,” reflecting the absence of verified diplomatic or military steps toward de-escalation in the final weeks before the summit.** Resolution hinges on concrete actions such as formal US-Iran agreements or verified cessation of enforcement, neither of which appears imminent based on official statements and shipping data through late August.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 12:39 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
**Ongoing US enforcement of the naval blockade on Iranian ports and shipping, combined with renewed sanctions pressure in August 2026, has kept the measure in place despite a brief June pause.** The blockade, imposed amid the broader US-Iran conflict that began earlier in the year, restricts Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and was only temporarily eased under a June memorandum before reimposition. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have publicly stated the Navy can sustain it indefinitely while pursuing what they describe as unprecedented economic measures against Tehran and its partners.
**China’s continued purchases of Iranian oil and diplomatic resistance to US calls for cooperation have further reduced prospects for a quick resolution before Xi Jinping’s planned US visit around September 24.** Beijing has rejected unilateral sanctions, emphasized dialogue over pressure, and shown no signs of altering its stance to facilitate lifting the blockade. Recent US sanctions targeting Iran-linked entities, including some with Chinese ties, have heightened friction without producing a breakthrough.
**These developments anchor trader consensus at 89% for “No,” reflecting the absence of verified diplomatic or military steps toward de-escalation in the final weeks before the summit.** Resolution hinges on concrete actions such as formal US-Iran agreements or verified cessation of enforcement, neither of which appears imminent based on official statements and shipping data through late August.
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before Xi Jinping visits the United States. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If neither a qualifying announcement nor a Xi Jinping visit to the United States occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade.
A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated.
A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify.
The following do not qualify:
Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official;
Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government;
Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade;
Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and
Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position.
Once a qualifying announcement is made before Xi Jinping visits the United States, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice.
The primary resolution source for whether the blockade has ended will be official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.
For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.
The primary resolution source for whether Xi Jinping visits the United States will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 12:39 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing US enforcement of the naval blockade on Iranian ports and shipping, combined with renewed sanctions pressure in August 2026, has kept the measure in place despite a brief June pause.** The blockade, imposed amid the broader US-Iran conflict that began earlier in the year, restricts Iranian oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and was only temporarily eased under a June memorandum before reimposition. US officials, including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, have publicly stated the Navy can sustain it indefinitely while pursuing what they describe as unprecedented economic measures against Tehran and its partners. **China’s continued purchases of Iranian oil and diplomatic resistance to US calls for cooperation have further reduced prospects for a quick resolution before Xi Jinping’s planned US visit around September 24.** Beijing has rejected unilateral sanctions, emphasized dialogue over pressure, and shown no signs of altering its stance to facilitate lifting the blockade. Recent US sanctions targeting Iran-linked entities, including some with Chinese ties, have heightened friction without producing a breakthrough. **These developments anchor trader consensus at 89% for “No,” reflecting the absence of verified diplomatic or military steps toward de-escalation in the final weeks before the summit.** Resolution hinges on concrete actions such as formal US-Iran agreements or verified cessation of enforcement, neither of which appears imminent based on official statements and shipping data through late August.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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