Recent Chinese maritime patrols east of Taiwan, expanded since June and including over 50 vessels in late October, along with live-fire drills simulating port blockades in early November, reflect intensified gray-zone coercion rather than an imminent full blockade. Internal PLA leadership purges and the short remaining window in 2026 further reduce the feasibility of a major operation, aligning with U.S. assessments focusing on 2027 readiness. Traders price near-certainty on no blockade due to these constraints and Beijing’s preference for lower-threshold pressure. A sudden leadership directive or rapid escalation from ongoing drills could still alter the outcome before year-end.