Recent redistricting enacted by North Carolina Republicans in late 2025 shifted populations between the 1st and 3rd districts, tilting the Democratic-held NC-1 toward Republicans and positioning it as a likely flip while preserving GOP advantages in most other seats. This leaves Democrats defending a reduced base of competitive terrain ahead of the 2026 midterms, with four seats held entering the cycle. Trader focus on three to five Democratic wins reflects the open NC-11 Republican seat, national midterm dynamics, and limited crossover opportunities in remaining districts rated lean or safe Republican by forecasters. An open Republican retirement and any Democratic performance gains could expand the total, while further legal challenges to the map or weak turnout in targeted areas would likely cap gains near the lower end of the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5 39%
3 25%
4 24%
6+ 15.2%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<3
1%
3
25%
4
24%
5
39%
6+
15%
5 39%
3 25%
4 24%
6+ 15.2%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<3
$202 Vol.
1%
3
$212 Vol.
25%
4
$452 Vol.
24%
5
$1,813 Vol.
39%
6+
$184 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent redistricting enacted by North Carolina Republicans in late 2025 shifted populations between the 1st and 3rd districts, tilting the Democratic-held NC-1 toward Republicans and positioning it as a likely flip while preserving GOP advantages in most other seats. This leaves Democrats defending a reduced base of competitive terrain ahead of the 2026 midterms, with four seats held entering the cycle. Trader focus on three to five Democratic wins reflects the open NC-11 Republican seat, national midterm dynamics, and limited crossover opportunities in remaining districts rated lean or safe Republican by forecasters. An open Republican retirement and any Democratic performance gains could expand the total, while further legal challenges to the map or weak turnout in targeted areas would likely cap gains near the lower end of the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ET
Volume
$2,864End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent redistricting enacted by North Carolina Republicans in late 2025 shifted populations between the 1st and 3rd districts, tilting the Democratic-held NC-1 toward Republicans and positioning it as a likely flip while preserving GOP advantages in most other seats. This leaves Democrats defending a reduced base of competitive terrain ahead of the 2026 midterms, with four seats held entering the cycle. Trader focus on three to five Democratic wins reflects the open NC-11 Republican seat, national midterm dynamics, and limited crossover opportunities in remaining districts rated lean or safe Republican by forecasters. An open Republican retirement and any Democratic performance gains could expand the total, while further legal challenges to the map or weak turnout in targeted areas would likely cap gains near the lower end of the leading outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in North Carolina in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All North Carolina US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,864End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 10:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent redistricting enacted by North Carolina Republicans in late 2025 shifted populations between the 1st and 3rd districts, tilting the Democratic-held NC-1 toward Republicans and positioning it as a likely flip while preserving GOP advantages in most other seats. This leaves Democrats defending a reduced base of competitive terrain ahead of the 2026 midterms, with four seats held entering the cycle. Trader focus on three to five Democratic wins reflects the open NC-11 Republican seat, national midterm dynamics, and limited crossover opportunities in remaining districts rated lean or safe Republican by forecasters. An open Republican retirement and any Democratic performance gains could expand the total, while further legal challenges to the map or weak turnout in targeted areas would likely cap gains near the lower end of the leading outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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