Sean Combs remains in federal custody serving a roughly 50-month sentence following his 2025 conviction on prostitution-related counts, with projected release dates clustered in early 2028. Recent adjustments to his projected release have shifted it modestly but consistently place him behind bars through the end of 2026, while an April 2026 appeal hearing is unlikely to produce immediate freedom given standard appellate timelines and the judge’s prior denial of bail. Traders view the 89.1% market-implied odds against a 2026 release as reflecting the length of the sentence, limited precedent for swift post-conviction relief in similar cases, and the absence of any verified developments—such as successful early-release motions or health-related rulings—that would alter the timeline before year-end.