**Professora Dorinha (União Brasil) and Vicentinho Júnior (PSDB) advanced to the October 25 runoff after a first-round contest on October 4 in which Dorinha captured 45.52% of valid votes to Vicentinho’s 43.94%, a 1.58-point gap of roughly 13,400 votes.** Pre-runoff polling consistently showed the pair in a technical tie or narrow Dorinha lead within the margin of error, with second-round simulations producing similar results. Tocantins has held only two prior gubernatorial runoffs, both won by the first-round leader. The razor-thin first-round margin, combined with limited post-election polling and ongoing efforts by both campaigns to consolidate support from eliminated candidates, has produced fragmented trader probabilities across narrow victory margins while elevating the “Other” category. The second-round outcome remains highly sensitive to turnout shifts and late alliance moves.