Omar Aziz leads Maria do Carmo into the October 25 second round after taking 40.6% to her 24.5% in the first round, with Roberto Cidade eliminated in third. Pre-election surveys showed Aziz ahead in most head-to-head matchups, buoyed by stronger interior support, while Maria do Carmo performed better in Manaus. Recent reports indicate hidden backing for Maria do Carmo from Wilson Lima and Cidade’s União Brasil network, potentially narrowing the gap in the capital and among undecided voters. These dynamics leave the exact margin widely dispersed among traders, with “Other” outcomes capturing nearly half the probability amid uncertainty over turnout shifts and late campaign momentum before the runoff.