Lula's dominant 86.5% market price for first place in Amazonas reflects his established regional base in northern Brazil and recent local polling showing him ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by nine points among the state's roughly 2.8 million voters. As the incumbent Workers' Party candidate seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from coalition alliances and voter patterns favoring the center-left in Amazonas, where he has historically performed strongly. Flávio Bolsonaro's 12% pricing tracks his narrower path despite his father's endorsement and the Liberal Party ticket, with national surveys indicating a tighter race elsewhere in the North. The October 4 first-round vote remains weeks away, leaving room for shifts from campaign events or turnout dynamics in this compulsory-voting state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLula 87%
Flavio Bolsonaro 12%
Renan Santos <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
87%
Flavio Bolsonaro
12%
Renan Santos
1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Zema
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Lula 87%
Flavio Bolsonaro 12%
Renan Santos <1%
Clariana Barao <1%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Lula
$3,076 Vol.
87%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$1,347 Vol.
12%
Renan Santos
$414 Vol.
1%
Clariana Barao
$412 Vol.
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
$376 Vol.
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
$341 Vol.
<1%
Zema
$402 Vol.
<1%
Edmilson Costa
$421 Vol.
<1%
Hertz Dias
$566 Vol.
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$566 Vol.
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
$461 Vol.
<1%
Samara
$351 Vol.
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
$353 Vol.
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's dominant 86.5% market price for first place in Amazonas reflects his established regional base in northern Brazil and recent local polling showing him ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by nine points among the state's roughly 2.8 million voters. As the incumbent Workers' Party candidate seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from coalition alliances and voter patterns favoring the center-left in Amazonas, where he has historically performed strongly. Flávio Bolsonaro's 12% pricing tracks his narrower path despite his father's endorsement and the Liberal Party ticket, with national surveys indicating a tighter race elsewhere in the North. The October 4 first-round vote remains weeks away, leaving room for shifts from campaign events or turnout dynamics in this compulsory-voting state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Volume
$9,088End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula's dominant 86.5% market price for first place in Amazonas reflects his established regional base in northern Brazil and recent local polling showing him ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by nine points among the state's roughly 2.8 million voters. As the incumbent Workers' Party candidate seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from coalition alliances and voter patterns favoring the center-left in Amazonas, where he has historically performed strongly. Flávio Bolsonaro's 12% pricing tracks his narrower path despite his father's endorsement and the Liberal Party ticket, with national surveys indicating a tighter race elsewhere in the North. The October 4 first-round vote remains weeks away, leaving room for shifts from campaign events or turnout dynamics in this compulsory-voting state.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amazonas, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amazonas.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amazonas. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volume
$9,088End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:25 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula's dominant 86.5% market price for first place in Amazonas reflects his established regional base in northern Brazil and recent local polling showing him ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by nine points among the state's roughly 2.8 million voters. As the incumbent Workers' Party candidate seeking a fourth term, Lula benefits from coalition alliances and voter patterns favoring the center-left in Amazonas, where he has historically performed strongly. Flávio Bolsonaro's 12% pricing tracks his narrower path despite his father's endorsement and the Liberal Party ticket, with national surveys indicating a tighter race elsewhere in the North. The October 4 first-round vote remains weeks away, leaving room for shifts from campaign events or turnout dynamics in this compulsory-voting state.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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