Recent polls for Pará’s two Senate seats show Helder Barbalho (MDB) holding a clear lead for first place, leaving a fragmented contest for second among roughly a dozen registered candidates including Delegado Éder Mauro (PL), Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and others. Latest surveys from July and early August place Éder Mauro ahead of the pack for second but with support levels close enough to several rivals that small shifts in turnout or alliances could reorder the field. The two-vote, first-round system and absence of a dominant challenger keep implied probabilities clustered, reflecting trader assessment of a still-open race two months before the October 4 election. Further polling, party conventions, or high-profile endorsements could quickly widen gaps among the contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCelso Sabino 45%
Breno Guimarães 43%
Chicão 41%
Edlaine Rodrigues 41%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Celso Sabino
45%
Breno Guimarães
43%
Chicão
41%
Edlaine Rodrigues
41%
Gizelle Freitas
41%
Fernanda Lopes
40%
Willem da Silva
29%
Helder
28%
Conti
27%
Zequinha Marinho
27%
Delegado Éder Mauro
26%
Celso Sabino 45%
Breno Guimarães 43%
Chicão 41%
Edlaine Rodrigues 41%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Celso Sabino
$0 Vol.
45%
Breno Guimarães
$0 Vol.
43%
Chicão
$0 Vol.
41%
Edlaine Rodrigues
$0 Vol.
41%
Gizelle Freitas
$0 Vol.
41%
Fernanda Lopes
$0 Vol.
40%
Willem da Silva
$0 Vol.
29%
Helder
$0 Vol.
28%
Conti
$0 Vol.
27%
Zequinha Marinho
$0 Vol.
27%
Delegado Éder Mauro
$0 Vol.
26%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls for Pará’s two Senate seats show Helder Barbalho (MDB) holding a clear lead for first place, leaving a fragmented contest for second among roughly a dozen registered candidates including Delegado Éder Mauro (PL), Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and others. Latest surveys from July and early August place Éder Mauro ahead of the pack for second but with support levels close enough to several rivals that small shifts in turnout or alliances could reorder the field. The two-vote, first-round system and absence of a dominant challenger keep implied probabilities clustered, reflecting trader assessment of a still-open race two months before the October 4 election. Further polling, party conventions, or high-profile endorsements could quickly widen gaps among the contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent polls for Pará’s two Senate seats show Helder Barbalho (MDB) holding a clear lead for first place, leaving a fragmented contest for second among roughly a dozen registered candidates including Delegado Éder Mauro (PL), Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and others. Latest surveys from July and early August place Éder Mauro ahead of the pack for second but with support levels close enough to several rivals that small shifts in turnout or alliances could reorder the field. The two-vote, first-round system and absence of a dominant challenger keep implied probabilities clustered, reflecting trader assessment of a still-open race two months before the October 4 election. Further polling, party conventions, or high-profile endorsements could quickly widen gaps among the contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Pará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:12 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls for Pará’s two Senate seats show Helder Barbalho (MDB) holding a clear lead for first place, leaving a fragmented contest for second among roughly a dozen registered candidates including Delegado Éder Mauro (PL), Zequinha Marinho (Podemos), Celso Sabino (PDT), Chicão (União Brasil), and others. Latest surveys from July and early August place Éder Mauro ahead of the pack for second but with support levels close enough to several rivals that small shifts in turnout or alliances could reorder the field. The two-vote, first-round system and absence of a dominant challenger keep implied probabilities clustered, reflecting trader assessment of a still-open race two months before the October 4 election. Further polling, party conventions, or high-profile endorsements could quickly widen gaps among the contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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