Multiple viable contenders are vying for the second Senate seat in Minas Gerais, where voters elect two representatives on October 4, 2026. Recent candidate registrations closed with 17 names, including Marília Campos (PT), who leads early polling at 18-21% as the likely first-place finisher, while Carlos Viana (PSD), Marcelo Aro (PP), Domingos Sávio (PL), and others trail in a fragmented pack with shares typically between 9-16%. Official campaigning began August 16, and the absence of a dominant challenger for second place—amid shifting alliances and limited name recognition beyond the top tier—has kept implied probabilities tightly clustered near 40-50% across many options. This reflects trader assessment of the open field, where modest polling shifts or late endorsements could quickly reorder the middle of the pack.