Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor who assumed office in March 2026 after Ibaneis Rocha's resignation, secured 49.93% in the October 4 first round—short of the majority needed to win outright—while Leandro Grass (PT) received 34.47%. Polling throughout September showed her widening lead after the TSE barred ex-governor José Roberto Arruda's candidacy, with Leão drawing strong support from evangelical voters and across most electoral zones. Her broad coalition and efforts to consolidate right-leaning endorsements ahead of the October 25 runoff underpin trader consensus on her position. A narrow first-round margin and Grass's performance in central Brasília areas highlight potential volatility tied to turnout or late shifts, though structural advantages favor the incumbent.