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icon for FL-06 Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Republican Primary

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner

icon for FL-06 Republican Primary Winner
Elections·Republican Primary

FL-06 Republican Primary Winner

Randy Fine 97.3%

Aaron Baker 1.5%

Dan Bilzerian 1.3%

Alexandra Van Cleef <1%

Polymarket

$226,399 Vol.

Randy Fine 97.3%

Aaron Baker 1.5%

Dan Bilzerian 1.3%

Alexandra Van Cleef <1%

Polymarket

$226,399 Vol.

icon for Randy Fine

Randy Fine

$32,403 Vol.

97%

icon for Aaron Baker

Aaron Baker

$22,957 Vol.

2%

icon for Dan Bilzerian

Dan Bilzerian

$78,424 Vol.

1%

icon for Alexandra Van Cleef

Alexandra Van Cleef

$41,191 Vol.

1%

icon for Charles Gambaro

Charles Gambaro

$17,669 Vol.

<1%

icon for Joshua Vasquez

Joshua Vasquez

$13,607 Vol.

<1%

icon for Ernest Audino

Ernest Audino

$20,148 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Randy Fine holds a commanding lead in the Florida 6th congressional district Republican primary due to his incumbency following the 2025 special election victory and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million. The August 18, 2026, primary features several challengers, including Aaron Baker and Dan Bilzerian, yet none have mounted significant organization or financial competition in the solidly Republican district. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent developments that would shift momentum. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unexpected late developments in the final days before voting or unusually high turnout favoring an under-the-radar contender, though such shifts remain unlikely given the timeline and resource disparities.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$226,399
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Randy Fine holds a commanding lead in the Florida 6th congressional district Republican primary due to his incumbency following the 2025 special election victory and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $4 million. The August 18, 2026, primary features several challengers, including Aaron Baker and Dan Bilzerian, yet none have mounted significant organization or financial competition in the solidly Republican district. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent developments that would shift momentum. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unexpected late developments in the final days before voting or unusually high turnout favoring an under-the-radar contender, though such shifts remain unlikely given the timeline and resource disparities.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$226,399
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 13, 2026, 6:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"FL-06 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Randy Fine" at 97%, followed by "Aaron Baker" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "FL-06 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $226.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 13, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "FL-06 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "FL-06 Republican Primary Winner" is "Randy Fine" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Aaron Baker" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "FL-06 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.