Former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya leads trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to win the Minnesota Republican U.S. Senate primary on August 11, driven by a February NRSC poll showing her 30-point advantage, National Republican Senatorial Committee backing, and Q1 fundraising haul of nearly $2 million—outpacing all rivals combined for superior cash-on-hand. Adam Schwarze holds 14.2% on momentum from recent grassroots straw polls, including a May Tea Party Patriots victory at 59%, appealing to activists ahead of the Minnesota GOP state convention this month's end where party endorsement will be decided. Mike Ruoho's 5.3% reflects modest visibility in the fragmented field, with Tafoya's name recognition offsetting base wariness from her April debate absence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMichele Tafoya 78%
Adam Schwarze 13.6%
David Hann 1.5%
Royce White 1.4%
$82,974 Vol.
$82,974 Vol.
Michele Tafoya
78%
Adam Schwarze
14%
David Hann
1%
Royce White
1%
Alycia Gruenhagen
1%
Mike Ruoho
14%
Christopher Brooks
<1%
Jim Nash
<1%
Tom Weiler
<1%
Julia Coleman
<1%
Kristin Robbins
<1%
Raymond Petersen
<1%
Michele Tafoya 78%
Adam Schwarze 13.6%
David Hann 1.5%
Royce White 1.4%
$82,974 Vol.
$82,974 Vol.
Michele Tafoya
78%
Adam Schwarze
14%
David Hann
1%
Royce White
1%
Alycia Gruenhagen
1%
Mike Ruoho
14%
Christopher Brooks
<1%
Jim Nash
<1%
Tom Weiler
<1%
Julia Coleman
<1%
Kristin Robbins
<1%
Raymond Petersen
<1%
If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 3:22 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no 2026 Minnesota Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Former sports broadcaster Michele Tafoya leads trader consensus at 77.5% implied probability to win the Minnesota Republican U.S. Senate primary on August 11, driven by a February NRSC poll showing her 30-point advantage, National Republican Senatorial Committee backing, and Q1 fundraising haul of nearly $2 million—outpacing all rivals combined for superior cash-on-hand. Adam Schwarze holds 14.2% on momentum from recent grassroots straw polls, including a May Tea Party Patriots victory at 59%, appealing to activists ahead of the Minnesota GOP state convention this month's end where party endorsement will be decided. Mike Ruoho's 5.3% reflects modest visibility in the fragmented field, with Tafoya's name recognition offsetting base wariness from her April debate absence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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