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Politics·Primaries

Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner

icon for Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner

Ashley B. Moody 96.0%

Michaelangelo Hamilton 2.6%

A.C. Toulme 1.4%

Jake Lang <1%

Polymarket

$14,228 Vol.

Ashley B. Moody 96.0%

Michaelangelo Hamilton 2.6%

A.C. Toulme 1.4%

Jake Lang <1%

Polymarket

$14,228 Vol.

Ashley B. Moody

$8,601 Vol.

96%

Michaelangelo Hamilton

$2,748 Vol.

3%

A.C. Toulme

$1,415 Vol.

1%

Jake Lang

$1,465 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Appointed incumbent Sen. Ashley B. Moody commands 96% trader consensus for Florida's August 18 Republican Senate primary, fueled by her statewide name recognition as former attorney general, endorsements from business groups like the Florida Chamber of Commerce and the Police Benevolent Association, and a lack of serious challengers following the April 24 qualifying deadline. Low-profile opponents—entrepreneur Michaelangelo Hamilton, perennial candidate A.C. Toulme, and controversial activist Jake Lang—show minimal fundraising or polling traction in the absence of surveys. Historical patterns favor GOP incumbents in deep-red primaries, but scenarios like a high-profile endorsement (e.g., from former President Trump), personal scandal, or unexpected underdog surge could shift dynamics before early voting.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$14,228
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Appointed incumbent Sen. Ashley B. Moody commands 96% trader consensus for Florida's August 18 Republican Senate primary, fueled by her statewide name recognition as former attorney general, endorsements from business groups like the Florida Chamber of Commerce and the Police Benevolent Association, and a lack of serious challengers following the April 24 qualifying deadline. Low-profile opponents—entrepreneur Michaelangelo Hamilton, perennial candidate A.C. Toulme, and controversial activist Jake Lang—show minimal fundraising or polling traction in the absence of surveys. Historical patterns favor GOP incumbents in deep-red primaries, but scenarios like a high-profile endorsement (e.g., from former President Trump), personal scandal, or unexpected underdog surge could shift dynamics before early voting.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$14,228
End Date
Aug 18, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 24, 2025, 3:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida. If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ashley B. Moody" at 96%, followed by "Michaelangelo Hamilton" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" has generated $14.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" is "Ashley B. Moody" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Michaelangelo Hamilton" at 3%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Florida Republican Senate Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.