Sweden’s 2026 parliamentary election on September 13 produced final certified results showing Kristdemokraterna (KD) at 6.17 percent and Miljöpartiet (MP) at 6.12 percent, confirming the near-certain trader consensus. Pre-election polling aggregates consistently placed KD narrowly ahead in the weeks before the vote, reflecting stable support within the Tidö bloc and MP’s incremental recovery failing to close the gap. Both parties cleared the four-percent threshold with comparable seat outcomes, yet KD’s structural position and voter base delivered the edge. The razor-thin margin left limited room for late swings in turnout or advance-vote patterns to alter the ranking, though certification of all ballots eliminated remaining procedural uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMP
<1% chance
$9,523 Vol.
$9,523 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
MP
<1% chance
$9,523 Vol.
$9,523 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s 2026 parliamentary election on September 13 produced final certified results showing Kristdemokraterna (KD) at 6.17 percent and Miljöpartiet (MP) at 6.12 percent, confirming the near-certain trader consensus. Pre-election polling aggregates consistently placed KD narrowly ahead in the weeks before the vote, reflecting stable support within the Tidö bloc and MP’s incremental recovery failing to close the gap. Both parties cleared the four-percent threshold with comparable seat outcomes, yet KD’s structural position and voter base delivered the edge. The razor-thin margin left limited room for late swings in turnout or advance-vote patterns to alter the ranking, though certification of all ballots eliminated remaining procedural uncertainty.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:33 AM ET
Volume
$9,523End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: KD
No dispute
Final outcome: KD
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s 2026 parliamentary election on September 13 produced final certified results showing Kristdemokraterna (KD) at 6.17 percent and Miljöpartiet (MP) at 6.12 percent, confirming the near-certain trader consensus. Pre-election polling aggregates consistently placed KD narrowly ahead in the weeks before the vote, reflecting stable support within the Tidö bloc and MP’s incremental recovery failing to close the gap. Both parties cleared the four-percent threshold with comparable seat outcomes, yet KD’s structural position and voter base delivered the edge. The razor-thin margin left limited room for late swings in turnout or advance-vote patterns to alter the ranking, though certification of all ballots eliminated remaining procedural uncertainty.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “MP” if Green Party (MP) wins more valid votes than Christian Democrats (KD) in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “KD” if Christian Democrats (KD) wins more valid votes than Green Party (MP) in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both Green Party (MP) and Christian Democrats (KD) receive exactly the same number of valid votes in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid votes won by each specified party.
Valid votes will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$9,523End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:33 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: KD
No dispute
Final outcome: KD
Sweden’s 2026 parliamentary election on September 13 produced final certified results showing Kristdemokraterna (KD) at 6.17 percent and Miljöpartiet (MP) at 6.12 percent, confirming the near-certain trader consensus. Pre-election polling aggregates consistently placed KD narrowly ahead in the weeks before the vote, reflecting stable support within the Tidö bloc and MP’s incremental recovery failing to close the gap. Both parties cleared the four-percent threshold with comparable seat outcomes, yet KD’s structural position and voter base delivered the edge. The razor-thin margin left limited room for late swings in turnout or advance-vote patterns to alter the ranking, though certification of all ballots eliminated remaining procedural uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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