Nithya Raman holds a narrow lead in trader consensus for the November 3 runoff, reflecting recent polling momentum that shows her ahead of incumbent Karen Bass among likely voters. A mid-September UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies survey found Raman at 39 percent to Bass’s 28 percent, with one-third of respondents still undecided. Bass’s elevated unfavorability ratings and voter dissatisfaction with city responses to homelessness, public safety, and the 2025 wildfires have weighed on her position, while Raman has consolidated support from younger voters and progressive constituencies. Mail ballots begin arriving in early October, leaving time for shifts among the large undecided bloc that includes many former Spencer Pratt primary supporters.