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icon for Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

icon for Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Los Angeles Mayoral Election

Karen Bass 53%

Spencer Pratt 26%

Nithya Raman 19%

Adam Miller <1%

Polymarket

$1,625,295 Vol.

Karen Bass 53%

Spencer Pratt 26%

Nithya Raman 19%

Adam Miller <1%

Polymarket

$1,625,295 Vol.

icon for Karen Bass

Karen Bass

$61,720 Vol.

53%

icon for Spencer Pratt

Spencer Pratt

$648,105 Vol.

26%

icon for Nithya Raman

Nithya Raman

$86,382 Vol.

19%

icon for Adam Miller

Adam Miller

$113,431 Vol.

1%

icon for Rae Huang

Rae Huang

$71,050 Vol.

1%

icon for Asaad Alnajjar

Asaad Alnajjar

$60,294 Vol.

<1%

icon for Austin Beutner

Austin Beutner

$14,788 Vol.

<1%

icon for Monica Rodriguez

Monica Rodriguez

$13,996 Vol.

<1%

icon for Rick Caruso

Rick Caruso

$436,696 Vol.

<1%

icon for Gina Viola

Gina Viola

$92,762 Vol.

<1%

icon for Lindsey Horvath

Lindsey Horvath

$26,071 Vol.

<1%

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a trader consensus edge at 52.5% implied probability to win the Los Angeles mayoral election following a new Emerson College poll showing her at 30% among likely voters, ahead of Spencer Pratt's 22% and Nithya Raman's 19% with 16% undecided. Pratt's surge reflects strong debate performances last week, where he criticized Bass on homelessness, crime, and Palisades wildfires that destroyed his home, gaining traction among frustrated voters and endorsements from figures like Adam Carolla. Bass faced backlash for skipping a key forum, while Raman trails as a progressive councilmember. With the June 2 primary advancing top-two to a November runoff, undecideds and turnout in battleground areas like Pacific Palisades could tip advancement odds.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Volume
$1,625,295
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass holds a trader consensus edge at 52.5% implied probability to win the Los Angeles mayoral election following a new Emerson College poll showing her at 30% among likely voters, ahead of Spencer Pratt's 22% and Nithya Raman's 19% with 16% undecided. Pratt's surge reflects strong debate performances last week, where he criticized Bass on homelessness, crime, and Palisades wildfires that destroyed his home, gaining traction among frustrated voters and endorsements from figures like Adam Carolla. Bass faced backlash for skipping a key forum, while Raman trails as a progressive councilmember. With the June 2 primary advancing top-two to a November runoff, undecideds and turnout in battleground areas like Pacific Palisades could tip advancement odds.

The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.
Volume
$1,625,295
End Date
Jun 2, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 4:35 PM ET
The 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, to elect the mayor of Los Angeles, California. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote, a runoff election will be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate that wins the election. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Los Angeles.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Karen Bass" at 53%, followed by "Spencer Pratt" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 53¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" has generated $1.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Los Angeles Mayoral Election," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" is "Karen Bass" at 53%, meaning the market assigns a 53% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Spencer Pratt" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Los Angeles Mayoral Election" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.