Recent polling in Iowa's open Senate race shows a toss-up between Republican Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek, with late September surveys from Marist, InsiderAdvantage, and Trafalgar producing margins inside the margin of error and averages clustered near 44-45% for each. The open gubernatorial contest favors Democrat Rob Sand over Republican Zach Lahn by roughly five points in aggregates, though the Republican nominee's primary performance and statewide name recognition keep that contest from being decided. These patterns sustain trader focus on split outcomes and the "other" category, as Iowa's recent voting history and national midterm dynamics leave room for late shifts in turnout or messaging before November.