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Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

icon for California Governor Election Winner
Elections·US Election

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra 52.2%

Tom Steyer 31.6%

Steve Hilton 8.5%

Chad Bianco 3.1%

Polymarket

$21,267,416 Vol.

Xavier Becerra 52.2%

Tom Steyer 31.6%

Steve Hilton 8.5%

Chad Bianco 3.1%

Polymarket

$21,267,416 Vol.

Xavier Becerra

$851,712 Vol.

52%

Tom Steyer

$3,303,775 Vol.

32%

Steve Hilton

$1,202,774 Vol.

9%

Chad Bianco

$1,197,937 Vol.

3%

Matt Mahan

$724,077 Vol.

2%

Katie Porter

$1,045,258 Vol.

1%

Elaine Culotti

$350,552 Vol.

1%

Betty Yee

$884,515 Vol.

<1%

Eleni Kounalakis

$928,117 Vol.

<1%

Leo Zacky

$593,434 Vol.

<1%

Alex Padilla

$893,591 Vol.

<1%

Michael Younger

$759,161 Vol.

<1%

Nicole Shanahan

$649,894 Vol.

<1%

Rick Caruso

$820,391 Vol.

<1%

Stephen Cloobeck

$870,279 Vol.

<1%

Kyle Langford

$1,368,616 Vol.

<1%

Tony Thurmond

$698,193 Vol.

<1%

Eric Swalwell

$731,091 Vol.

<1%

Kamala Harris

$680,553 Vol.

<1%

Antonio Villaraigosa

$608,188 Vol.

<1%

Butch Ware

$734,268 Vol.

<1%

Toni Atkins

$688,671 Vol.

<1%

Daniel Mercuri

$686,214 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra holds a 52% trader consensus as the frontrunner in California's 2026 gubernatorial race, propelled by a post-April polling surge after Rep. Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations, boosting Becerra from single digits to leads like 18% in the latest Emerson College survey. Billionaire Tom Steyer trails at 31% despite $132 million in self-funding, reflecting voter fatigue with outsized spending in a fragmented top-two primary field. Republican Steve Hilton's 8% share has eroded as Democrats consolidate, with early voting underway ahead of the June 2 primary that advances the top two to November—Becerra's extensive record as state attorney general and congressman bolsters his path to victory amid high undecided turnout.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$21,267,416
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra holds a 52% trader consensus as the frontrunner in California's 2026 gubernatorial race, propelled by a post-April polling surge after Rep. Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign amid sexual misconduct allegations, boosting Becerra from single digits to leads like 18% in the latest Emerson College survey. Billionaire Tom Steyer trails at 31% despite $132 million in self-funding, reflecting voter fatigue with outsized spending in a fragmented top-two primary field. Republican Steve Hilton's 8% share has eroded as Democrats consolidate, with early voting underway ahead of the June 2 primary that advances the top two to November—Becerra's extensive record as state attorney general and congressman bolsters his path to victory amid high undecided turnout.

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.

If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
Volume
$21,267,416
End Date
Nov 3, 2026
Market Opened
Oct 9, 2025, 7:21 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"California Governor Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 23 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Xavier Becerra" at 52%, followed by "Tom Steyer" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "California Governor Election Winner" has generated $21.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 9, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "California Governor Election Winner," browse the 23 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "California Governor Election Winner" is "Xavier Becerra" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tom Steyer" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "California Governor Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.