Recent polling in Alaska’s U.S. Senate race shows Democrat Mary Peltola maintaining a narrow lead or statistical tie with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, with multiple September surveys placing her ahead or within the margin of error in a ranked-choice voting system. The open gubernatorial contest, following term limits on the Republican incumbent, features a crowded field that has advanced competitive Democratic candidates into the general election alongside Republican contenders. Trader consensus on a Democratic sweep reflects these dynamics, as Peltola’s positioning and the governor’s fragmented primary results create a plausible path for both offices to shift Democratic. The low probability assigned to a Republican sweep aligns with Sullivan’s vulnerability and the absence of a clear Republican favorite for governor. Upcoming debates and final-week turnout efforts remain the primary near-term variables that could adjust these implied probabilities.