Sweden's parliamentary election on 13 September 2026 produced preliminary results placing the Sweden Democrats at 17.5–17.6 percent of the vote, well below the 19 percent threshold. This outcome followed consistent pre-election polling averages in the high teens, with the party slipping from its 20.5 percent share in 2022 and dropping to third place behind the Moderates. The decline aligned with higher turnout among voters with non-European backgrounds favoring center-left parties, alongside broader bloc dynamics that left the right-wing alliance short of a majority. With over 99 percent of districts counted and final tallies due shortly, trader consensus reflects the substantial gap between current results and the over-19 percent line. Remaining uncertainties are limited to a small number of late or overseas ballots unlikely to close the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
<1% chance
$7,325 Vol.
$7,325 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
Over
<1% chance
$7,325 Vol.
$7,325 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden's parliamentary election on 13 September 2026 produced preliminary results placing the Sweden Democrats at 17.5–17.6 percent of the vote, well below the 19 percent threshold. This outcome followed consistent pre-election polling averages in the high teens, with the party slipping from its 20.5 percent share in 2022 and dropping to third place behind the Moderates. The decline aligned with higher turnout among voters with non-European backgrounds favoring center-left parties, alongside broader bloc dynamics that left the right-wing alliance short of a majority. With over 99 percent of districts counted and final tallies due shortly, trader consensus reflects the substantial gap between current results and the over-19 percent line. Remaining uncertainties are limited to a small number of late or overseas ballots unlikely to close the margin.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ET
Volume
$7,325End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Under
No dispute
Final outcome: Under
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden's parliamentary election on 13 September 2026 produced preliminary results placing the Sweden Democrats at 17.5–17.6 percent of the vote, well below the 19 percent threshold. This outcome followed consistent pre-election polling averages in the high teens, with the party slipping from its 20.5 percent share in 2022 and dropping to third place behind the Moderates. The decline aligned with higher turnout among voters with non-European backgrounds favoring center-left parties, alongside broader bloc dynamics that left the right-wing alliance short of a majority. With over 99 percent of districts counted and final tallies due shortly, trader consensus reflects the substantial gap between current results and the over-19 percent line. Remaining uncertainties are limited to a small number of late or overseas ballots unlikely to close the margin.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins at least 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Sweden Democrats (SD) wins less than 19% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$7,325End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:37 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: Under
No dispute
Final outcome: Under
Sweden's parliamentary election on 13 September 2026 produced preliminary results placing the Sweden Democrats at 17.5–17.6 percent of the vote, well below the 19 percent threshold. This outcome followed consistent pre-election polling averages in the high teens, with the party slipping from its 20.5 percent share in 2022 and dropping to third place behind the Moderates. The decline aligned with higher turnout among voters with non-European backgrounds favoring center-left parties, alongside broader bloc dynamics that left the right-wing alliance short of a majority. With over 99 percent of districts counted and final tallies due shortly, trader consensus reflects the substantial gap between current results and the over-19 percent line. Remaining uncertainties are limited to a small number of late or overseas ballots unlikely to close the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions