Recent polling averages from firms such as Novus, Verian, and Demoskop place Miljöpartiet (MP) between 6.3% and 7.2% through mid-August 2026, with most surveys clustering just below the 7% threshold. The September 13 election date leaves little runway for major shifts in support, though bloc dynamics within the centre-left opposition and competition for urban or younger voters could influence final turnout. Trader pricing of "Under" at 56.5% reflects this narrow positioning and the absence of recent catalysts strong enough to push MP consistently above the line in aggregate data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOver
46% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
Over
46% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling averages from firms such as Novus, Verian, and Demoskop place Miljöpartiet (MP) between 6.3% and 7.2% through mid-August 2026, with most surveys clustering just below the 7% threshold. The September 13 election date leaves little runway for major shifts in support, though bloc dynamics within the centre-left opposition and competition for urban or younger voters could influence final turnout. Trader pricing of "Under" at 56.5% reflects this narrow positioning and the absence of recent catalysts strong enough to push MP consistently above the line in aggregate data.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ET
Volume
$215End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Recent polling averages from firms such as Novus, Verian, and Demoskop place Miljöpartiet (MP) between 6.3% and 7.2% through mid-August 2026, with most surveys clustering just below the 7% threshold. The September 13 election date leaves little runway for major shifts in support, though bloc dynamics within the centre-left opposition and competition for urban or younger voters could influence final turnout. Trader pricing of "Under" at 56.5% reflects this narrow positioning and the absence of recent catalysts strong enough to push MP consistently above the line in aggregate data.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve to “Over” if Green Party (MP) wins at least 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve to “Under” if Green Party (MP) wins less than 7% of all valid votes in the specified election
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Volume
$215End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 5:38 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages from firms such as Novus, Verian, and Demoskop place Miljöpartiet (MP) between 6.3% and 7.2% through mid-August 2026, with most surveys clustering just below the 7% threshold. The September 13 election date leaves little runway for major shifts in support, though bloc dynamics within the centre-left opposition and competition for urban or younger voters could influence final turnout. Trader pricing of "Under" at 56.5% reflects this narrow positioning and the absence of recent catalysts strong enough to push MP consistently above the line in aggregate data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated



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