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icon for South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory
Politics·Primaries

South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory

icon for South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory
Politics·Primaries

South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory

Norman 5%+ 18.5%

Norman <5% 19%

Graham Nordone 10–15% 15%

Graham Nordone 5–10% 15%

Polymarket
NEW

Norman 5%+ 18.5%

Norman <5% 19%

Graham Nordone 10–15% 15%

Graham Nordone 5–10% 15%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Graham Nordone 20%+

Graham Nordone 20%+

$203 Vol.

8%

icon for Graham Nordone 15–20%

Graham Nordone 15–20%

$50 Vol.

20%

icon for Graham Nordone 10–15%

Graham Nordone 10–15%

$550 Vol.

23%

icon for Graham Nordone 5–10%

Graham Nordone 5–10%

$701 Vol.

15%

icon for Graham Nordone <5%

Graham Nordone <5%

$5 Vol.

14%

icon for Norman <5%

Norman <5%

$287 Vol.

19%

icon for Norman 5%+

Norman 5%+

$417 Vol.

19%

icon for Fry <5%

Fry <5%

$346 Vol.

11%

icon for Fry 5%+

Fry 5%+

$140 Vol.

9%

icon for Sanford wins

Sanford wins

$73 Vol.

4%

The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.A crowded Republican primary field featuring interim Sen. Darline Graham Nordone, Reps. Ralph Norman and Russell Fry, and former Gov. Mark Sanford has produced tight polling and trader expectations of a fragmented first-round outcome on August 11. Nordone’s recent Trump endorsement and family name recognition compete with Norman’s conservative House record and broad endorsements, Fry’s regional strength, and Sanford’s statewide experience, keeping any single candidate’s margin narrow. The likelihood of no majority and a potential August 25 runoff elevates “other” and sub-5% or 5–15% victory scenarios for the top contenders, reflecting the last-minute filing period and limited time for any frontrunner to consolidate support before early voting concludes.

The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$2,771
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.A crowded Republican primary field featuring interim Sen. Darline Graham Nordone, Reps. Ralph Norman and Russell Fry, and former Gov. Mark Sanford has produced tight polling and trader expectations of a fragmented first-round outcome on August 11. Nordone’s recent Trump endorsement and family name recognition compete with Norman’s conservative House record and broad endorsements, Fry’s regional strength, and Sanford’s statewide experience, keeping any single candidate’s margin narrow. The likelihood of no majority and a potential August 25 runoff elevates “other” and sub-5% or 5–15% victory scenarios for the top contenders, reflecting the last-minute filing period and limited time for any frontrunner to consolidate support before early voting concludes.

The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$2,771
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 7, 2026, 4:30 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special primary election for the US Senate election in South Carolina is scheduled to be held on August 11, 2026, with a potential runoff on August 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the South Carolina Senate Special Republican Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of South Carolina, such as official statewide results published by the South Carolina Election Commission (https://scvotes.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Graham Nordone 10–15%" at 23%, followed by "Graham Nordone 15–20%" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 23¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 7, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory" is "Graham Nordone 10–15%" at 23%, meaning the market assigns a 23% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Graham Nordone 15–20%" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "South Carolina Special Senate Republican Primary: First Round Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.