Québec solidaire enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election with 11 sitting MNAs and concentrated support in several Montreal ridings, where first-past-the-post mechanics and incumbency advantages typically deliver seats even at lower provincial vote shares. Aggregators such as 338Canada project nine seats for the party, with a floor of three and safe or likely holds in districts including Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques. Recent polling has shown QS support stable near 9–10 percent despite volatility among larger parties. This structural positioning underpins trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent implied probability. Late-campaign swings that erode QS margins in every competitive riding or a broader collapse in left-leaning turnout remain the primary pathways that could alter the outcome before election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated95% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
95% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 5, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election with 11 sitting MNAs and concentrated support in several Montreal ridings, where first-past-the-post mechanics and incumbency advantages typically deliver seats even at lower provincial vote shares. Aggregators such as 338Canada project nine seats for the party, with a floor of three and safe or likely holds in districts including Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques. Recent polling has shown QS support stable near 9–10 percent despite volatility among larger parties. This structural positioning underpins trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent implied probability. Late-campaign swings that erode QS margins in every competitive riding or a broader collapse in left-leaning turnout remain the primary pathways that could alter the outcome before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ET
Volume
$279End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Québec solidaire enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election with 11 sitting MNAs and concentrated support in several Montreal ridings, where first-past-the-post mechanics and incumbency advantages typically deliver seats even at lower provincial vote shares. Aggregators such as 338Canada project nine seats for the party, with a floor of three and safe or likely holds in districts including Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques. Recent polling has shown QS support stable near 9–10 percent despite volatility among larger parties. This structural positioning underpins trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent implied probability. Late-campaign swings that erode QS margins in every competitive riding or a broader collapse in left-leaning turnout remain the primary pathways that could alter the outcome before election night.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Québec solidaire (QS) wins at least one seat in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$279End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:14 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x65070BE91...Québec solidaire enters the October 5, 2026, provincial election with 11 sitting MNAs and concentrated support in several Montreal ridings, where first-past-the-post mechanics and incumbency advantages typically deliver seats even at lower provincial vote shares. Aggregators such as 338Canada project nine seats for the party, with a floor of three and safe or likely holds in districts including Gouin, Mercier, and Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques. Recent polling has shown QS support stable near 9–10 percent despite volatility among larger parties. This structural positioning underpins trader consensus reflected in the 95.5 percent implied probability. Late-campaign swings that erode QS margins in every competitive riding or a broader collapse in left-leaning turnout remain the primary pathways that could alter the outcome before election night.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions