Recent polls show the August 29 Icelandic referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains a near dead heat, with support for restarting talks at 51.3% to 48.7% in the latest Maskína survey and even splits in Gallup data. Traders price the margin of victory tightly because fisheries sovereignty, the krona’s volatility, and broader security concerns tied to U.S. tariffs and regional tensions continue to divide voters evenly. The centre-left government frames a yes vote as a mandate to negotiate terms ahead of any second referendum on membership, while opponents highlight risks to fishing rights and national control. High uncertainty over turnout and late shifts keeps probabilities concentrated on narrow outcomes under 6%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo 9–12% 45%
Yes <3% 43%
Yes 3–6% 36%
No 12–15% 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
4%
Yes 12–15%
9%
Yes 9–12%
1%
Yes 6–9%
20%
Yes 3–6%
23%
Yes <3%
43%
No <3%
43%
No 3–6%
24%
No 6–9%
24%
No 9–12%
45%
No 12–15%
22%
No 15%+
18%
No 9–12% 45%
Yes <3% 43%
Yes 3–6% 36%
No 12–15% 22%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$108 Vol.
4%
Yes 12–15%
$87 Vol.
9%
Yes 9–12%
$21 Vol.
1%
Yes 6–9%
$11 Vol.
20%
Yes 3–6%
$44 Vol.
23%
Yes <3%
$44 Vol.
43%
No <3%
$43 Vol.
43%
No 3–6%
$24 Vol.
24%
No 6–9%
$24 Vol.
24%
No 9–12%
$22 Vol.
45%
No 12–15%
$86 Vol.
22%
No 15%+
$16 Vol.
18%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show the August 29 Icelandic referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains a near dead heat, with support for restarting talks at 51.3% to 48.7% in the latest Maskína survey and even splits in Gallup data. Traders price the margin of victory tightly because fisheries sovereignty, the krona’s volatility, and broader security concerns tied to U.S. tariffs and regional tensions continue to divide voters evenly. The centre-left government frames a yes vote as a mandate to negotiate terms ahead of any second referendum on membership, while opponents highlight risks to fishing rights and national control. High uncertainty over turnout and late shifts keeps probabilities concentrated on narrow outcomes under 6%.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Volume
$531End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show the August 29 Icelandic referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains a near dead heat, with support for restarting talks at 51.3% to 48.7% in the latest Maskína survey and even splits in Gallup data. Traders price the margin of victory tightly because fisheries sovereignty, the krona’s volatility, and broader security concerns tied to U.S. tariffs and regional tensions continue to divide voters evenly. The centre-left government frames a yes vote as a mandate to negotiate terms ahead of any second referendum on membership, while opponents highlight risks to fishing rights and national control. High uncertainty over turnout and late shifts keeps probabilities concentrated on narrow outcomes under 6%.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$531End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show the August 29 Icelandic referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains a near dead heat, with support for restarting talks at 51.3% to 48.7% in the latest Maskína survey and even splits in Gallup data. Traders price the margin of victory tightly because fisheries sovereignty, the krona’s volatility, and broader security concerns tied to U.S. tariffs and regional tensions continue to divide voters evenly. The centre-left government frames a yes vote as a mandate to negotiate terms ahead of any second referendum on membership, while opponents highlight risks to fishing rights and national control. High uncertainty over turnout and late shifts keeps probabilities concentrated on narrow outcomes under 6%.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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