Recent polling and fundraising data underscore a tightly contested top-four primary on August 18, with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola as the clear frontrunners in Alaska’s nonpartisan Senate contest. Peltola has outraised Sullivan by a wide margin in recent quarters, while multiple surveys place the candidates within a few points of each other, often with substantial undecided or split support among the remaining field. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and history of narrow statewide results reinforce trader expectations of modest margins rather than decisive separation. Factors that could widen the gap include final turnout patterns among independents, any late endorsements from party or tribal leaders, or unexpected strength from lesser-known candidates that fragments the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPeltola 3–6% 43%
Peltola <3% 20%
Peltola 6–9% 18%
Sullivan <3% 8%
$13,940 Vol.
$13,940 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
2%
Peltola 12–15%
4%
Peltola 9–12%
6%
Peltola 6–9%
18%
Peltola 3–6%
43%
Peltola <3%
20%
Sullivan <3%
8%
Sullivan 3–6%
4%
Sullivan 6–9%
2%
Sullivan 9–12%
1%
Sullivan 12%+
1%
Peltola 3–6% 43%
Peltola <3% 20%
Peltola 6–9% 18%
Sullivan <3% 8%
$13,940 Vol.
$13,940 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Peltola 15%+
$200 Vol.
2%
Peltola 12–15%
$159 Vol.
4%
Peltola 9–12%
$173 Vol.
6%
Peltola 6–9%
$531 Vol.
18%
Peltola 3–6%
$9,596 Vol.
43%
Peltola <3%
$1,022 Vol.
20%
Sullivan <3%
$380 Vol.
8%
Sullivan 3–6%
$773 Vol.
4%
Sullivan 6–9%
$438 Vol.
2%
Sullivan 9–12%
$332 Vol.
1%
Sullivan 12%+
$337 Vol.
1%
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling and fundraising data underscore a tightly contested top-four primary on August 18, with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola as the clear frontrunners in Alaska’s nonpartisan Senate contest. Peltola has outraised Sullivan by a wide margin in recent quarters, while multiple surveys place the candidates within a few points of each other, often with substantial undecided or split support among the remaining field. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and history of narrow statewide results reinforce trader expectations of modest margins rather than decisive separation. Factors that could widen the gap include final turnout patterns among independents, any late endorsements from party or tribal leaders, or unexpected strength from lesser-known candidates that fragments the vote.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$13,940End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling and fundraising data underscore a tightly contested top-four primary on August 18, with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola as the clear frontrunners in Alaska’s nonpartisan Senate contest. Peltola has outraised Sullivan by a wide margin in recent quarters, while multiple surveys place the candidates within a few points of each other, often with substantial undecided or split support among the remaining field. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and history of narrow statewide results reinforce trader expectations of modest margins rather than decisive separation. Factors that could widen the gap include final turnout patterns among independents, any late endorsements from party or tribal leaders, or unexpected strength from lesser-known candidates that fragments the vote.
The non-partisan primary election for US Senator from Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Senator from Alaska.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in this primary election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official election results published by the Alaska Division of Elections (https://www.elections.alaska.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$13,940End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling and fundraising data underscore a tightly contested top-four primary on August 18, with incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democratic challenger Mary Peltola as the clear frontrunners in Alaska’s nonpartisan Senate contest. Peltola has outraised Sullivan by a wide margin in recent quarters, while multiple surveys place the candidates within a few points of each other, often with substantial undecided or split support among the remaining field. Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system and history of narrow statewide results reinforce trader expectations of modest margins rather than decisive separation. Factors that could widen the gap include final turnout patterns among independents, any late endorsements from party or tribal leaders, or unexpected strength from lesser-known candidates that fragments the vote.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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