**High political stakes and intense voter mobilization ahead of Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations are sustaining expectations for solid participation.** Recent polls show the "yes" and "no" sides nearly tied at roughly 51-49, sharpening focus on fisheries policy, currency stability, cost-of-living pressures, and broader geopolitical shifts. Early voting has already drawn nearly 18,000 participants—higher than anticipated—with officials noting strong interest. This aligns with Iceland's recent national elections posting turnouts near 80 percent. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 60–80 percent brackets, reflecting established patterns of engagement in salient national ballots while acknowledging variables such as final-day weather, last-minute outreach, and undecided voters that could shift the final figure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated45–50% 26%
65–70% 26%
70–75% 26%
50–55% 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
24%
45–50%
26%
50–55%
25%
55–60%
25%
60–65%
24%
65–70%
26%
70–75%
26%
75–80%
25%
80–85%
24%
85%+
11%
45–50% 26%
65–70% 26%
70–75% 26%
50–55% 25%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
$0 Vol.
24%
45–50%
$0 Vol.
26%
50–55%
$0 Vol.
25%
55–60%
$0 Vol.
25%
60–65%
$0 Vol.
24%
65–70%
$0 Vol.
26%
70–75%
$0 Vol.
26%
75–80%
$0 Vol.
25%
80–85%
$0 Vol.
24%
85%+
$0 Vol.
11%
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**High political stakes and intense voter mobilization ahead of Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations are sustaining expectations for solid participation.** Recent polls show the "yes" and "no" sides nearly tied at roughly 51-49, sharpening focus on fisheries policy, currency stability, cost-of-living pressures, and broader geopolitical shifts. Early voting has already drawn nearly 18,000 participants—higher than anticipated—with officials noting strong interest. This aligns with Iceland's recent national elections posting turnouts near 80 percent. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 60–80 percent brackets, reflecting established patterns of engagement in salient national ballots while acknowledging variables such as final-day weather, last-minute outreach, and undecided voters that could shift the final figure.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.**High political stakes and intense voter mobilization ahead of Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations are sustaining expectations for solid participation.** Recent polls show the "yes" and "no" sides nearly tied at roughly 51-49, sharpening focus on fisheries policy, currency stability, cost-of-living pressures, and broader geopolitical shifts. Early voting has already drawn nearly 18,000 participants—higher than anticipated—with officials noting strong interest. This aligns with Iceland's recent national elections posting turnouts near 80 percent. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 60–80 percent brackets, reflecting established patterns of engagement in salient national ballots while acknowledging variables such as final-day weather, last-minute outreach, and undecided voters that could shift the final figure.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**High political stakes and intense voter mobilization ahead of Iceland's August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations are sustaining expectations for solid participation.** Recent polls show the "yes" and "no" sides nearly tied at roughly 51-49, sharpening focus on fisheries policy, currency stability, cost-of-living pressures, and broader geopolitical shifts. Early voting has already drawn nearly 18,000 participants—higher than anticipated—with officials noting strong interest. This aligns with Iceland's recent national elections posting turnouts near 80 percent. Traders assign the highest probabilities to the 60–80 percent brackets, reflecting established patterns of engagement in salient national ballots while acknowledging variables such as final-day weather, last-minute outreach, and undecided voters that could shift the final figure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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