Recent polling averages place the Parti Libéral du Québec near 22-24% provincewide support ahead of the October 5 election, with strength concentrated among non-francophone voters on Montreal Island. This geographic distribution produces vote inefficiency that caps projected seats in the low-to-mid 30s according to aggregators, even as the party contests official opposition status. Tight three-way competition with the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec in francophone ridings, combined with minor recent shifts in CAQ and PLQ momentum, sustains uncertainty across the 28-35 seat range. Remaining campaign events, including televised debates, could alter turnout patterns or regional swings that decide the final tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated28-31 35%
<28 26%
32-35 26%
36-39 6.3%
$25,053 Vol.
$25,053 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<28
26%
28-31
35%
32-35
26%
36-39
6%
40-43
2%
44+
1%
28-31 35%
<28 26%
32-35 26%
36-39 6.3%
$25,053 Vol.
$25,053 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<28
$4,646 Vol.
26%
28-31
$5,039 Vol.
35%
32-35
$7,007 Vol.
26%
36-39
$5,508 Vol.
6%
40-43
$1,501 Vol.
2%
44+
$1,351 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Libéral du Québec near 22-24% provincewide support ahead of the October 5 election, with strength concentrated among non-francophone voters on Montreal Island. This geographic distribution produces vote inefficiency that caps projected seats in the low-to-mid 30s according to aggregators, even as the party contests official opposition status. Tight three-way competition with the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec in francophone ridings, combined with minor recent shifts in CAQ and PLQ momentum, sustains uncertainty across the 28-35 seat range. Remaining campaign events, including televised debates, could alter turnout patterns or regional swings that decide the final tally.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$25,053End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Libéral du Québec near 22-24% provincewide support ahead of the October 5 election, with strength concentrated among non-francophone voters on Montreal Island. This geographic distribution produces vote inefficiency that caps projected seats in the low-to-mid 30s according to aggregators, even as the party contests official opposition status. Tight three-way competition with the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec in francophone ridings, combined with minor recent shifts in CAQ and PLQ momentum, sustains uncertainty across the 28-35 seat range. Remaining campaign events, including televised debates, could alter turnout patterns or regional swings that decide the final tally.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti libéral du Québec (PLQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$25,053End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the Parti Libéral du Québec near 22-24% provincewide support ahead of the October 5 election, with strength concentrated among non-francophone voters on Montreal Island. This geographic distribution produces vote inefficiency that caps projected seats in the low-to-mid 30s according to aggregators, even as the party contests official opposition status. Tight three-way competition with the Parti Québécois and Coalition Avenir Québec in francophone ridings, combined with minor recent shifts in CAQ and PLQ momentum, sustains uncertainty across the 28-35 seat range. Remaining campaign events, including televised debates, could alter turnout patterns or regional swings that decide the final tally.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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