Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois holding steady near 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec and Liberals, though still well short of a majority threshold in seat models. Projections from sources such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ’s expected seat total in the mid-40s to low-50s range out of 127, reflecting a large number of tight three-way and PQ-CAQ contests that limit conversion of popular-vote leads into ridings. Recent surveys indicate modest CAQ softening and a slight Liberal rebound, while high levels of undecided voters and regional vote splits continue to widen outcome ranges. These dynamics have positioned sub-55 seat results as the trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<50 41%
50-54 14%
55-59 14%
65-69 6.7%
$16,695 Vol.
$16,695 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<50
41%
50-54
14%
55-59
11%
60-64
12%
65-69
7%
70-74
6%
75-79
5%
80+
4%
<50 41%
50-54 14%
55-59 14%
65-69 6.7%
$16,695 Vol.
$16,695 Vol.
Oct 5, 2026
<50
$5,128 Vol.
41%
50-54
$1,395 Vol.
14%
55-59
$852 Vol.
11%
60-64
$993 Vol.
12%
65-69
$3,282 Vol.
7%
70-74
$2,651 Vol.
6%
75-79
$1,290 Vol.
5%
80+
$1,104 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois holding steady near 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec and Liberals, though still well short of a majority threshold in seat models. Projections from sources such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ’s expected seat total in the mid-40s to low-50s range out of 127, reflecting a large number of tight three-way and PQ-CAQ contests that limit conversion of popular-vote leads into ridings. Recent surveys indicate modest CAQ softening and a slight Liberal rebound, while high levels of undecided voters and regional vote splits continue to widen outcome ranges. These dynamics have positioned sub-55 seat results as the trader consensus.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$16,695End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois holding steady near 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec and Liberals, though still well short of a majority threshold in seat models. Projections from sources such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ’s expected seat total in the mid-40s to low-50s range out of 127, reflecting a large number of tight three-way and PQ-CAQ contests that limit conversion of popular-vote leads into ridings. Recent surveys indicate modest CAQ softening and a slight Liberal rebound, while high levels of undecided voters and regional vote splits continue to widen outcome ranges. These dynamics have positioned sub-55 seat results as the trader consensus.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$16,695End Date
Oct 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling aggregates show the Parti Québécois holding steady near 28-29% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec and Liberals, though still well short of a majority threshold in seat models. Projections from sources such as 338Canada and The Writ place the PQ’s expected seat total in the mid-40s to low-50s range out of 127, reflecting a large number of tight three-way and PQ-CAQ contests that limit conversion of popular-vote leads into ridings. Recent surveys indicate modest CAQ softening and a slight Liberal rebound, while high levels of undecided voters and regional vote splits continue to widen outcome ranges. These dynamics have positioned sub-55 seat results as the trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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