The open seat in Rosemont, following the retirement of independent MNA Vincent Marissal, has produced a tightly contested race among Québec solidaire’s Gisèle Pouhe Njall, Parti Québécois candidate Pierre-Luc Brillant, Liberal David Lavoie, CAQ nominee Nour Aliyah Attié, and Conservative Mildred Mathieu. Recent candidate nominations and the start of the October 5 general election campaign have kept probabilities closely aligned, as no single contender has established a decisive advantage in local polling or voter outreach. Key factors sustaining the balance include the riding’s history of strong QS performance, PQ efforts to regain ground on sovereignty and health-care priorities such as hospital reconstruction, and competition over housing and education issues. Further separation could emerge from provincial polling trends, leader visits, candidate debates, or late shifts in turnout among Montreal voters before nomination deadlines close on September 17.