The 2026 Quebec general election in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne remains a near toss-up between incumbent Québec solidaire MNA Guillaume Cliche-Rivard and Liberal challenger Benoit Clermont, with CAQ candidate Anthony Lavoie also in contention. Cliche-Rivard captured the Montreal riding in the 2023 by-election after decades of Liberal dominance, reflecting its urban, left-leaning electorate and emphasis on housing and immigration. Current projections from sources such as 338Canada treat the race as highly competitive, with vote shares clustered closely due to incumbency advantages, ground organization, and limited differentiation in the early provincial campaign that began after the August 27 writ drop. Developments that could create separation include candidate debates, shifts in broader party standings, turnout patterns among progressive and anglophone voters, or endorsements before nominations close on September 17. Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects this balance amid short-campaign uncertainty ahead of the October 5 vote.