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icon for How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

icon for How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?
Politics·Russia

How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?

<35 91%

45–54 5%

35–44 4.9%

65–74 3.9%

Polymarket
NEW

<35 91%

45–54 5%

35–44 4.9%

65–74 3.9%

Polymarket
NEW

<35

$401 Vol.

91%

35–44

$375 Vol.

5%

45–54

$81 Vol.

5%

55–64

$88 Vol.

3%

65–74

$143 Vol.

4%

75–84

$201 Vol.

2%

85+

$408 Vol.

1%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The tightly managed Russian electoral system, with its 5% threshold, mixed proportional-single-member structure, and United Russia dominance, underpins trader consensus that New People will secure under 35 Duma seats. The party currently holds 15 mandates and has registered a federal list led by Alexey Nechayev, Vladislav Davankov, and Sardana Avksentieva for the September 20, 2026 vote, alongside 83 single-member candidates. Recent polling and forecasts, including those from VTsIOM and Kommersant, project roughly 11-13% support translating to around 25-30 proportional seats if trends hold, aided by prior growth from its 2021 result and a merger with the Party of Growth. Limited single-member reach and institutional constraints cap upside. A sharp, sustained polling surge or unexpected administrative adjustments could push totals higher, though such shifts remain rare in the current framework.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$1,697
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The tightly managed Russian electoral system, with its 5% threshold, mixed proportional-single-member structure, and United Russia dominance, underpins trader consensus that New People will secure under 35 Duma seats. The party currently holds 15 mandates and has registered a federal list led by Alexey Nechayev, Vladislav Davankov, and Sardana Avksentieva for the September 20, 2026 vote, alongside 83 single-member candidates. Recent polling and forecasts, including those from VTsIOM and Kommersant, project roughly 11-13% support translating to around 25-30 proportional seats if trends hold, aided by prior growth from its 2021 result and a merger with the Party of Growth. Limited single-member reach and institutional constraints cap upside. A sharp, sustained polling surge or unexpected administrative adjustments could push totals higher, though such shifts remain rare in the current framework.

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Volume
$1,697
End Date
Sep 20, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<35" at 91%, followed by "35–44" at 5%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 91¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" is "<35" at 91%, meaning the market assigns a 91% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "35–44" at 5%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many seats will New People (NL) win in the next Russian legislative election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.