Recent polling ahead of Alberta’s October 19 referendum shows consistent majorities of 64-74% favoring the option to remain a province of Canada, versus 20-33% supporting the start of a legal process toward a future binding vote on separation. Multiple surveys from Ipsos, Janet Brown, Research Co., and others indicate little movement in these figures over recent months, with even lower direct support for full independence. Premier Danielle Smith and the UCP government have endorsed staying within Canada, while federal Conservative messaging has reinforced national unity; economic, pension, and treaty-related concerns have further weighed on separatist arguments. These entrenched voter preferences and procedural hurdles underpin the 96.9% trader consensus against an independence vote materializing in 2026, though unusually high separatist turnout or late shifts in attachment to Canada could still narrow margins.