Ukrainian forces maintain control over Kupiansk itself following successful counteroperations in late 2025 that encircled and largely expelled Russian units from the city and surrounding areas. As of early October 2026, Russian troops continue limited infiltrations from the north and attempts to establish positions near the Oskil River, but Ukrainian units, including the Khartiia Corps, have conducted rapid counterattacks, reclaimed territory north of the city, and disrupted Russian logistics. These developments, alongside broader Ukrainian advances in the sector that produced net territorial gains for Kyiv in September, have constrained Russian momentum and reinforced trader consensus around low near-term probability of full Russian capture. Ongoing infiltration efforts and winter conditions remain key variables to monitor.