Recent inflation data, including the July CPI rising 3.5% year-over-year with trimmed mean measures holding at 3.6%, combined with hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia communications on persistent upside risks, have shaped market-implied odds for the November cash rate decision. Governor Michele Bullock highlighted materializing pressures from elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions and global AI-driven demand, prompting banks such as CommBank and Westpac to shift forecasts toward a possible 25 basis point hike as early as the September 29 meeting. This environment supports the 72.5% implied probability of no change in November, as traders price in potential tightening beforehand while viewing further moves after the October 28 quarterly CPI release as less likely absent additional surprises. The 25.7% odds on a 25 basis point increase reflect residual uncertainty around cumulative policy needs to return inflation to the 2-3% target, consistent with ASX futures and economist revisions that have lifted the expected year-end cash rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 73%
25 bps increase 26.2%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$49,741 Vol.
$49,741 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
73%
25 bps increase
26%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 73%
25 bps increase 26.2%
25 bps decrease <1%
50+ bps increase <1%
$49,741 Vol.
$49,741 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$3,210 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$3,656 Vol.
1%
No change
$27,363 Vol.
73%
25 bps increase
$12,731 Vol.
26%
50+ bps increase
$2,781 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent inflation data, including the July CPI rising 3.5% year-over-year with trimmed mean measures holding at 3.6%, combined with hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia communications on persistent upside risks, have shaped market-implied odds for the November cash rate decision. Governor Michele Bullock highlighted materializing pressures from elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions and global AI-driven demand, prompting banks such as CommBank and Westpac to shift forecasts toward a possible 25 basis point hike as early as the September 29 meeting. This environment supports the 72.5% implied probability of no change in November, as traders price in potential tightening beforehand while viewing further moves after the October 28 quarterly CPI release as less likely absent additional surprises. The 25.7% odds on a 25 basis point increase reflect residual uncertainty around cumulative policy needs to return inflation to the 2-3% target, consistent with ASX futures and economist revisions that have lifted the expected year-end cash rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ET
Volume
$49,741End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent inflation data, including the July CPI rising 3.5% year-over-year with trimmed mean measures holding at 3.6%, combined with hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia communications on persistent upside risks, have shaped market-implied odds for the November cash rate decision. Governor Michele Bullock highlighted materializing pressures from elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions and global AI-driven demand, prompting banks such as CommBank and Westpac to shift forecasts toward a possible 25 basis point hike as early as the September 29 meeting. This environment supports the 72.5% implied probability of no change in November, as traders price in potential tightening beforehand while viewing further moves after the October 28 quarterly CPI release as less likely absent additional surprises. The 25.7% odds on a 25 basis point increase reflect residual uncertainty around cumulative policy needs to return inflation to the 2-3% target, consistent with ASX futures and economist revisions that have lifted the expected year-end cash rate path.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$49,741End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 10, 2026, 4:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation data, including the July CPI rising 3.5% year-over-year with trimmed mean measures holding at 3.6%, combined with hawkish Reserve Bank of Australia communications on persistent upside risks, have shaped market-implied odds for the November cash rate decision. Governor Michele Bullock highlighted materializing pressures from elevated oil prices amid Middle East tensions and global AI-driven demand, prompting banks such as CommBank and Westpac to shift forecasts toward a possible 25 basis point hike as early as the September 29 meeting. This environment supports the 72.5% implied probability of no change in November, as traders price in potential tightening beforehand while viewing further moves after the October 28 quarterly CPI release as less likely absent additional surprises. The 25.7% odds on a 25 basis point increase reflect residual uncertainty around cumulative policy needs to return inflation to the 2-3% target, consistent with ASX futures and economist revisions that have lifted the expected year-end cash rate path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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