Recent RBNZ actions and incoming data underscore the closely contested October OCR decision, with all outcomes priced near even odds reflecting high uncertainty. After lifting the cash rate 25 basis points to 2.50% in July—the first hike in three years—policymakers cited Q2 CPI at 4.1%, driven by energy and transport costs, while noting expected moderation toward the 2% target amid cooling growth and unemployment near 5.4-5.6%. The data-dependent stance leaves room for further tightening if inflation persistence or pricing behavior warrants it, or easing if fuel prices stabilize and activity weakens, with the September Monetary Policy Statement and subsequent releases serving as key swing factors that could shift the balance before the late-October review.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo change 51%
50+ bps decrease 50%
50+ bps increase 50%
25 bps decrease 49%
NEW
NEW
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
50%
25 bps decrease
49%
No change
51%
25 bps increase
49%
50+ bps increase
50%
No change 51%
50+ bps decrease 50%
50+ bps increase 50%
25 bps decrease 49%
NEW
NEW
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$0 Vol.
50%
25 bps decrease
$0 Vol.
49%
No change
$0 Vol.
51%
25 bps increase
$0 Vol.
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50+ bps increase
$0 Vol.
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This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent RBNZ actions and incoming data underscore the closely contested October OCR decision, with all outcomes priced near even odds reflecting high uncertainty. After lifting the cash rate 25 basis points to 2.50% in July—the first hike in three years—policymakers cited Q2 CPI at 4.1%, driven by energy and transport costs, while noting expected moderation toward the 2% target amid cooling growth and unemployment near 5.4-5.6%. The data-dependent stance leaves room for further tightening if inflation persistence or pricing behavior warrants it, or easing if fuel prices stabilize and activity weakens, with the September Monetary Policy Statement and subsequent releases serving as key swing factors that could shift the balance before the late-October review.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.Recent RBNZ actions and incoming data underscore the closely contested October OCR decision, with all outcomes priced near even odds reflecting high uncertainty. After lifting the cash rate 25 basis points to 2.50% in July—the first hike in three years—policymakers cited Q2 CPI at 4.1%, driven by energy and transport costs, while noting expected moderation toward the 2% target amid cooling growth and unemployment near 5.4-5.6%. The data-dependent stance leaves room for further tightening if inflation persistence or pricing behavior warrants it, or easing if fuel prices stabilize and activity weakens, with the September Monetary Policy Statement and subsequent releases serving as key swing factors that could shift the balance before the late-October review.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 28, 2026, as listed on the official RBNZ calendar (https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 28, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent RBNZ actions and incoming data underscore the closely contested October OCR decision, with all outcomes priced near even odds reflecting high uncertainty. After lifting the cash rate 25 basis points to 2.50% in July—the first hike in three years—policymakers cited Q2 CPI at 4.1%, driven by energy and transport costs, while noting expected moderation toward the 2% target amid cooling growth and unemployment near 5.4-5.6%. The data-dependent stance leaves room for further tightening if inflation persistence or pricing behavior warrants it, or easing if fuel prices stabilize and activity weakens, with the September Monetary Policy Statement and subsequent releases serving as key swing factors that could shift the balance before the late-October review.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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