Greenland's main political parties favor a gradual path to independence and have no plans to initiate a referendum process ahead of a constitutional commission's conclusions expected in late 2026. The 2009 Self-Government Act outlines steps requiring parliamentary approval in both Greenland and Denmark plus a popular vote, yet recent elections reinforced coalitions prioritizing economic stability and continued Danish partnership over immediate separation. External pressures, including U.S. interest in the territory, prompted explicit reaffirmations of ties with Copenhagen. Traders assign only a 5% chance of a 2026 vote because these institutional and electoral factors create significant procedural and political barriers. A faster timeline could emerge only if the commission accelerates recommendations or if coalition dynamics shift markedly before year-end.