The Supreme Court’s grant of certiorari in International Partners for Ethical Care v. Ferguson drives the current 72.5% implied probability that justices will allow parents to proceed with their challenge. The case centers on 2023 Washington amendments permitting minors to access gender-affirming medical services without parental consent and directing licensed shelters to notify state authorities rather than parents when runaway youth seek such care. Lower courts dismissed the suit for lack of Article III standing, but the Court agreed to review that holding in June 2026, with oral argument set for December 7. Recent filings emphasize parents’ claims of chilled decision-making authority and potential future injury, aligning with the Court’s prior recognition of parental rights in upbringing decisions. Traders appear to weigh the procedural posture and the Court’s docket patterns on similar justiciability questions as tilting toward reversal of the Ninth Circuit.