**Recent sanctions relief and a Trump-Putin agreement have opened the door for Russian diesel imports, but tight timing and logistics keep the market-implied odds of no U.S. imports by October 31 at 73.5%.** On October 9, 2026, the U.S. Treasury’s OFAC issued General License 135, temporarily authorizing transactions—including importation into the United States—for Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027. President Trump announced that Russia would immediately supply over 300,000 metric tons (roughly 2.25 million barrels), with additional volumes slated for November and beyond, framed as a response to elevated diesel prices near $6.28 per gallon. This marks the first broad U.S. waiver of the 2022 import ban since the Ukraine-related sanctions regime began. Despite the policy shift, physical imports by the October 31 resolution date face significant hurdles. Maritime transit from Russian export terminals to U.S. ports typically requires 20–40 days depending on loading location, routing, and vessel availability. Russia’s own diesel export restrictions, in place through at least late October, add further friction. Market participants appear to view confirmed arrivals or documented import activity within the remaining three weeks as improbable, even with the license in force. Key near-term catalysts include any verified tanker loadings, OFAC clarifications, or public confirmation of U.S.-bound cargoes before month-end.