Trump’s active diplomatic outreach to both Beijing and Moscow, including his May 2026 state visit to China and subsequent Xi summit in Washington, has sustained high-level engagement despite ongoing trade and security frictions. Xi’s back-to-back May summits with Trump and Putin in Beijing underscored China’s role as a diplomatic hub, while reports of possible Trump-Putin discussions on the sidelines of the November APEC forum in Shenzhen have raised prospects for a trilateral appearance before year-end. Traders appear to weigh these scheduled multilateral opportunities and the leaders’ demonstrated preference for direct meetings against the absence of confirmed joint plans, producing the current 70% implied probability for a sighting before 2027.